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Two countries Sweden and Spain are participating in a Baseball game. Mr. Ravi, the famous astrologer in Sweden is able to predict the winner of each match with great success. It is rumored that in a match between 2 teams J and K, Ravi picks J with the same probability as J's chances of winning. Let's assume such rumors to be true and that in a match between Sweden and Spain, Sweden the stronger team has a probability of 6/10 of winning the game. What is the probability that Ravi will correctly pick the winner of the Sweden - Spain game?

Two countries Sweden and Spain are participating in a Baseball game. Mr. Ravi, the famous astrologer in Sweden is able to predict the winner of each match with great success. It is rumored that in a match between 2 teams J and K, Ravi picks J with the same probability as J's chances of winning. Let's assume such rumors to be true and that in a match between Sweden and Spain, Sweden the stronger team has a probability of 6/10 of winning the game. What is the probability that Ravi will correctly pick the winner of the Sweden - Spain game? Correct Answer 13 / 25

Concept used:

Classical definition of probability.

Formula used:

Probability = Favorable Outcome / Total Outcome.

P (E) = n (E) / n(S)

Calculation:

Ravi predicts the winner in games with the same probability of winning.

Statement I - Sweden has got a chance of winning the game with 6 / 10 probability. Spain has got a chance of winning the game with a 4 / 10 probability. The probability of Ravi picking Sweden correctly is 6 / 10 while picking Spain is 4 / 10 (as per statement I). Probability of Ravi picking the winning team correctly = (Probability of Sweden winning the game) AND (Probability of Ravi picking Sweden correctly) OR (Probability of Spain winning the game) AND (Probability of Ravi picking Spain correctly).

Therefore, the Probability of Ravi picking the winning team correctly = (Probability of Sweden winning the game) × (Probability of Ravi picking Sweden correctly) + (Probability of Spain winning the game) × (Probability of Ravi picking Spain correctly).

Probability of predicting winning team = (6 / 10 × 6 / 10) + (4 / 10 × 4 / 10)

= (36 / 100) + (16 / 100)

= 52 / 100

= 13 / 25

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